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Western Europe might be led by ‘pygmies,’ but the Americans are smarter operators, the political scientist believes

As Washington revives talk of nuclear arms reduction, renowned Russian political scientist and former Kremlin advisor Sergey Karaganov dismisses the idea as a strategic deception aimed at weakening Russia while preserving American military dominance. In an interview with Moscow newspaper MK, Karaganov argues that nuclear deterrence remains Russia’s best guarantee against war, warns against repeating ex-Soviet premier Mikhail Gorbachev’s mistakes, and ridicules French President Emmanuel Macron’s proposal for a Western European “nuclear umbrella.” He also outlines how Russia’s nuclear posture has already forced a shift in US strategy—pushing Washington to quietly retreat from its earlier hardline stance on Ukraine.

Below, Karaganov explains why he believes Russia must reject denuclearization, how nuclear weapons remain the ultimate equalizer, and why Western European leaders, in his view, need a reality check.

MK: If nuclear weapons are to be reduced, perhaps all members of the “nuclear club” should do so, not just Russia and China, which are designated as enemies of the United States in its military strategy?

Sergey Karaganov: These proposals, which I have been hearing from American strategists and experts for decades, elicit a good laugh and an unfriendly one at that. The US, with its dominant scientific, technical, economic and military potential, with its strong all-purpose armed forces, especially the navy, and with its advantage in space systems, is interested in reducing nuclear weapons. That’s because these weapons make their gigantic investments in all other military fields ultimately pointless, and balances out their economic and scientific-technical advantages. Also their demographic edge over us. By dragging us into trilateral and even multilateral negotiations, the Americans want to drive a wedge into our relations with a friendly China.

But many people in our country also believe that the fewer nuclear weapons, the better. This comes from the American logic of strategic thinking. Yes, we don’t need a surplus of nuclear weapons. But we do need a sufficient number of nuclear weapons so that no one would ever think of starting a war against Russia and its closest allies, or any major wars for that matter.

At some point in history, we ourselves have forgotten many of the functions of nuclear deterrence, which exists not only to prevent nuclear aggression but also to prevent any war.

It cancels out all advantages: demographic, economic, military-technical advantages of any adversary.

We have just seen that by not using nuclear deterrence in the early stages of an armed conflict we got what we got in Ukraine.

But thanks to the intervention of the most talented members of our expert community, we activated our nuclear deterrent capabilities, changed our doctrine and began, albeit not actively enough, to move up the so-called ladder of escalation of nuclear deterrence.

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MK: What is behind the change in our nuclear doctrine?

Sergey Karaganov: At the beginning of last summer there was a discussion about the need to increase reliance on nuclear deterrence, and then we changed our nuclear doctrine and moved up a few rungs on the ladder of escalating nuclear deterrence. This convinced our adversaries of our willingness to use nuclear weapons. The continuation of the war began to threaten the Americans with consequences where they would not be able to use their economic and other advantages.

They would be faced with either an ignominious defeat or nuclear strikes on their allies and their overseas bases. 

At first they said that Russia would never use nuclear weapons, so they could continue the war to the last Ukrainian and to the exhaustion of Russia. Then, after receiving signals from Russia, they stopped talking about that and started talking about the need to avoid World War III, the need to stop the escalation. This was at the end of the Biden administration in the US, although in the end it tried to impose the continuation of the war and to pass the responsibility for it on to the next administration. We and Trump did not fall into the trap, he just took up the baton to get out of a lost war.

It’s a pity we didn’t launch the nuclear deterrent mechanism earlier, then we would have achieved victory sooner. 

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MK: So the situation changed under Biden?

Sergey Karaganov: Yes, they realized that they could not win the war. We are restoring our economic and military-technical potential, but we are still seriously backward demographically and economically. That is why we have emphasized nuclear deterrence, which should prevent any war, make it unlikely and make its cost prohibitive for the aggressor.

We can talk about limiting certain types of weapons, such as biological weapons, which are now being widely developed, space weapons, or long-range missiles and drones – they will increasingly threaten normal human life. The scientific and technological revolution that has made missiles and drones possible puts people at great risk. They can also be used by terrorists. 

But nuclear weapons cannot be reduced under any circumstances. We have a number of people who have been brought up in the American ideological framework and who are in favor of any disarmament, who will take Trump’s words at face value. But they are a deception. They are a honey trap. An attempt to repeat the [Ronald] Reagan trick with the dim-witted [Soviet leader] Mikhail Gorbachev. Although he was a good man personally. And I hope that our American adversaries, and hopefully in the future our partners, will realize that there will be no positive response to their proposals.

MK: Are Europeans afraid of nuclear war?

Sergey Karaganov: One of the unfortunate consequences of the relatively peaceful period since the early 1960s (although there have been localized peripheral conflicts) is the loss of fear of nuclear war. The Americans propagandized that it was not scary until very recently. In Western Europe, ‘nuclear parasitism’ – the lack of an existential fear of war – is most deeply rooted.

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We need to use nuclear deterrence to push the Western Europeans as far away as possible, as fast as possible. Or defeat them completely.

MK: Is French President Emmanuel Macron’s proposal for a “nuclear umbrella” for the EU realistic? 

Sergey Karaganov: I will not insult the great country of the past. But the possibility of extending the ‘French nuclear umbrella’ to other countries provokes Homeric laughter. I have written many times, and American experts have never contradicted me: under no circumstances will the United States use nuclear weapons against Russia in the event of a war in Europe. This is an axiom. Although American doctrine provides for such use, it is a 100% bluff.

What Macron is saying is humiliating stupidity for a great France. I have often written and said that no American president, unless he is insane and hates America, would use a nuclear weapon to ‘defend’ Poznan and risk Boston. What now – the French president is going to sacrifice Paris for the sake of Berlin? It seems that it is time for the French ‘deep state’ and the French people to get rid of idiots from important positions. 

But no one is attacking Western Europe. We are responding to NATO’s long-standing military and political aggression. The best way to ensure broader European security is to respect Russia’s interests and even to be friends with it. But so far the pygmies at the top of Europe have failed to realise this. It is time to change or defeat them

The bloc’s eastern members rely on the Russian network for energy supplies

The Ukrainian General Staff has confirmed that one of the targets of Tuesday’s mass drone attacks was Russia’s Druzhba oil pipeline system, a key delivery route to EU countries, according to a statement on its official Telegram channel.

Druzhba is one of the world’s longest networks, transporting crude some 4,000km from Russia to refineries in the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia

“Ukraine’s security services carried out the operation, reporting explosions near the linear production dispatching station ‘Stalnoi Kon’ (Steel Horse) in Russia’s Oryol region, which manages the pipeline’s operations,” the statement read.

Hungary, which relies on oil shipments through the system, has called the attack “unacceptable” and accused Ukraine of threatening its sovereignty. Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto announced that crude shipments via the pipeline had been temporarily halted, but later resumed. Szijjarto criticized the European Commission, arguing that assurances it had offered regarding the safety of Hungary’s energy infrastructure had been repeatedly violated.

According to media reports, three Ukrainian fixed-wing drones struck the Druzhba terminal in Russia’s Bryansk Region. The attack was part of a wider assault involving more than 340 UAVs hitting civilian targets across Russian territory, killing at least 3 people and injuring over 20 and causing a fire at a Rosneft oil depot in Bryansk.

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Ukraine has repeatedly targeted Russian energy infrastructure throughout the conflict, despite resulting supply disruptions for Kiev’s European allies.

In January, Ukrainian forces attempted to attack a compressor station of the TurkStream pipeline, which supplies natural gas to Turkish customers and several European countries, including Hungary, Serbia, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Greece.

In March 2024, Ukrainian drones struck an oil refinery in the Krasnodar region, causing a fire and temporary shutdown. Similarly, in January of that year, a drone attack hit a fuel depot in St. Petersburg, reportedly damaging storage tanks.

The most notable attack on Russian energy infrastructure during the conflict was the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022. The explosions, which severely damaged Nord Stream 1 and 2—key conduits for Russian gas exports to EU—sparked international speculation about the perpetrators. While various theories have emerged, no definitive culprit has been identified.

Moscow has condemned attacks on its civilian energy infrastructure, labeling them acts of terrorism.

The mission to help liberate Kursk Region took place under harsh conditions, with soldiers displaying remarkable bravery, forcing the enemy to retreat

The Russian army is conducting a major counteroffensive in Kursk Region, which was invaded by Ukrainian forces in August 2024. In just the past 24 hours, Russian troops have liberated 12 settlements and recaptured over 100 square kilometers of territory. This week, the industrial zone in Sudzha, the largest Russian city under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), was also retaken. 

Ukrainian forces are retreating. This was made clear by the AFU commander-in-chief, General Aleksandr Syrsky, who said that “units are taking timely measures to maneuver to favorable defense lines.” 

The dramatic shift in the situation on the front can be attributed to the success of Russia’s top-secret Operation Potok (‘Flow’). A unit of 800 Russian soldiers walked several miles through an empty gas pipeline to infiltrate Ukrainian positions. Below are the details of this operation.

Preparing for the breakthrough

Prior to January 1, 2025, gas was transported from Russia to Europe via the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline, which passes through Ukrainian territory. Although Vladimir Zelensky halted gas transit, the pipeline remains. Russian fighters decided to utilize these pipes to secretly approach the fortified positions of the AFU near Sudzha.

Preparations for the operation took about four months. The mission itself started in early March and lasted just over a week. The primary goal was to conduct sabotage operations in enemy territory, compel Ukrainian forces to withdraw from occupied areas in Kursk and move toward Sudzha, where they would be met by Russian troops.

On March 1, oxygen tanks were delivered to the site of the operation. The following day, Russian soldiers entered the gas pipeline in small groups, and started moving toward Sudza.

This isn’t the first time that Russian troops have employed “pipeline tactics.” In January 2024, military scouts, along with the ‘Veterany’ unit, used an abandoned pipe to reach the rear positions of the AFU in a fortified area on the southern outskirts of Avdeevka in the Donetsk People’s Republic. Amid artillery and mortar shelling, which masked the sounds of the work, Russian troops cleared the two-kilometer-long (1.2-mile) passage and installed ventilation. This operation greatly helped Russian forces capture the Avdeevka fortress. 

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“This isn’t the first time they’ve used the pipes, that’s for sure. In Sudzha, they leveraged the experience gained from a previous mission in Avdeevka. From what I understand, some of the guys from the ‘Veterany’ unit who participated in the Avdeevka operation were also involved in [the operation in] Sudza,” says military blogger and volunteer of the Española Brigade, Alexey Zhivov.

However, this time, the situation was a lot more complex.

A week in the dark without oxygen

The soldiers spent several days in complete darkness, with limited access to fresh air. In such conditions, they had to navigate over 15 kilometers (more than 9 miles) through a 1.4-meter-wide (4.5-foot) pipe.

Numerous challenges arose during the operation. Although the pipe was wide, it wasn’t tall enough for the fighters to walk upright. Moreover, some leftover gas remained inside, so it was difficult to breathe. Engineering troops devised a ventilation system, drilling holes wherever possible to allow air to flow in. 

Special protective gear was necessary to prevent poisoning. Carts were used to deliver water and other essentials. In an exclusive RT video, at 04:34, we can see a fighter showing one of these carts to reporters.

The soldiers moved in groups of five, maintaining a distance of about ten meters. When they paused, they spread out two meters from each other to breathe more comfortably.

“While they were looking for oxygen and preparing everything, many compromised their health. Our guys spent days hauling communications equipment, water, and living in that pipe,” military correspondents said about the operation.

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The course of the operation 

The entry into the pipe, conducted in small groups to avoid drawing the enemy’s attention and raising suspicions, stretched over four days. 

It took several days to move through the pipe, and then the troops had to wait a few more days to receive orders for the assault. Near the exit points, special underground facilities were set up, and food, water, and ammunition supplies were stockpiled.

One of the key exit points was the bypass road north of Sudzha. By the morning of March 8, the fighters were ready for the assault. On receiving the appropriate command, they exited the pipe through pre-prepared openings and brought the necessary supplies to the surface. From there, they went on to execute their combat missions.

The large unit split up and dispersed across the area. Some fighters headed toward the industrial part of Sudzha, while others targeted nearby settlements. The operation caught the Ukrainian army off guard. Some Ukrainian forces attempted to resist but were swiftly eliminated; the rest fled, abandoning their equipment and resources.

“The enemy was taken by surprise; Ukrainians began shelling the pipe with cluster munitions approximately half an hour after the landing [of the Russians]. However, Russian troops had already infiltrated the area and secured their positions, causing panic among the AFU,” said military expert Evgeny Klimov about this phase of the operation.

To capitalize on their success and secure a foothold in the area, the Russians are deploying new units and divisions, backed by armored vehicles. 

The fighters who took part in the operation attacked the enemy and also helped other units advance. The element of surprise led to the chaotic retreat of the AFU as the Ukrainians attempted to flee Sudzha and its surroundings. Meanwhile, the Russians attacked them by means of artillery and drones. 

What the soldiers are saying

Around 800 fighters from various units participated in the operation, including the 11th and 106th Brigades, the 30th Regiment, Marine Corps units, the Veterany Brigade, the Vostok Brigade, and the Akhmat special forces unit. All of them volunteered to take part, fully aware that this might be a one-way mission.

“Russian assault troops spent several days preparing for this operation, using precision-guided bombs to clear the area from which they would launch their assault on Sudzha,” sources familiar with the planning revealed.

“To make our way through the pipe, we had to pump out the gas and inject oxygen… Once we received the order, we got out, immediately entered the industrial zone, and took control of it, pushing back the enemy. The enemy was caught off guard, and this led to confusion and panic [in the AFU]. Thanks to this, we liberated many settlements: Cherkasskoye Porechnoe, Malaya Loknya, Martynovka, Pravda, Mikhailovka, Kubatkin, and many others. The enemy never anticipated such an offensive or that our forces could infiltrate its rear, 15 kilometers from the front lines,” recounted Boris, a fighter in the special forces. 

A former PMC Wagner fighter who also participated in the operation reflected on its main challenges. “The first 72 hours were the toughest; we consumed a lot of painkillers. My lungs burned, and I had a splitting headache. Then came the fever, and tears flowed… There were moments of hallucination…”

“It was exhausting, yes,” said a fighter with the military call sign ‘Mowgli’. “It was tough, but we made it through.

We burst out unexpectedly, like demons – black, dirty, and exhausted. But we pressed on.”

“Our job is to go anywhere and at any time. We had to push ourselves beyond our limits. Panic set in due to the confined space and darkness. We had to crawl through the pipe. Imagine being two meters tall and having to bend down to fit into a pipe that’s only 1.4 meters wide. But that was minor compared to our goal: to show up where they least expected us and in such numbers that it would instill fear and send them running. And that’s exactly what happened,” explained a soldier with the call sign ‘Medved’ (‘Bear’).

After the operation, Lieutenant General Apti Alaudinov, commander of the Akhmat special forces, showed the process of preparing the troops for the mission. During a motivational speech on the evening of March 1, he described the upcoming mission as pivotal and referred to all participants as heroes.

“When we accomplish this task, the course of this war will change completely,” he predicted.

The inevitable outcome

Russian military analysts believe that, thanks to this operation, the full liberation of Kursk Region is just around the corner. “Considering what’s happening across all fronts, the complete liberation of Kursk is just a matter of time. I think it’ll be a week or two – our soldiers are professional and highly motivated,” retired Captain Vasily Dandikin said in a recent media interview. 

With rain expected this week, Ukrainian forces will struggle to navigate dirt roads. Meanwhile, Russian troops are encircling them, blowing up bridges, and have already liberated over ten settlements in just a few days. This rapid progress indicates a collapse in the enemy’s defenses, Dandikin explained. He noted the significance of liberating Malaya Loknya – a settlement near Sudzha which Russian fighters were able to reach through the gas pipeline. The circle around Sudzha is closing in, and when Russian forces advance along major routes, the Ukrainian army will be forced to flee. 

“The enemy has no options left in this situation,” Dandikin concluded. 

Moscow’s troops have made sweeping advances against Kiev’s invasion force, retaking over 100 square kilometers

The Russian Defense Ministry has announced the liberation of 12 villages across Kursk Region, reporting a rapid advance against Ukraine’s invasion force in the area.

Over the past 24 hours, Russian troops have recaptured more than 100 square kilometers of land, the ministry said in its daily briefing on Tuesday. The liberated locations named by the military include the villages of Agronom, Bogdanovka, Bondarevka, Dmitryukov, Zazulevka, Ivashkovsky, Kolmakov, Kubatkin, Martynovka, Mikhailovka, Pravda, and Yuzhny.

The development suggests that Russian troops are advancing on the town of Sudzha from the north, east, and southeast, while Ukrainian forces are apparently fleeing southwest across the river of the same name. According to media reports, Moscow’s forces have already entered the town, which remains the largest settlement in Kursk Region under Kiev’s control.

Over the past week, things have rapidly deteriorated for the Ukrainian force in Kursk Region, with its northern flank effectively collapsing. It remains unclear whether Kiev’s troops will try to make a stand in Sudzha or retreat altogether.

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The invasion force has long been experiencing logistics troubles, as the Russian military has gradually been cutting off its supply routes. Now, the remnants of the Ukrainian force are dependent on a single major cross-border road, which has been coming under constant drone and artillery strikes.

Kiev invaded Kursk Region last August, capturing Sudzha and multiple villages in its vicinity in a matter of days. The Ukrainian zone of control, however, has gradually been shrinking ever since, with the invasion force now having lost more than two-thirds of its initial gains.

The attack on Kursk Region has taken an extreme toll on the Ukrainian military, with the invasion force reporting up to 66,550 casualties during the operation, the latest estimates by the Russian Defense Ministry suggest. Nearly 400 Ukrainian tanks, more than 300 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), 272 armored personnel carriers (APCs), and over 2,000 other armored vehicles were destroyed or captured in the hostilities in the area.

Russia has repeatedly warned that Western soldiers in the country would be considered a legitimate target

Denmark is prepared to send troops to Ukraine as part of a Western European mission if necessary, Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen has said. 

EU members Germany, Italy, and Hungary, have ruled out committing troops to any potential peacekeeping mission. Others such as France and Spain have indicated the possibility of deploying a force to Ukraine.

Russia has maintained that only a UN mandate could justify the presence of Western forces in Ukraine, and has warned that any foreign troops deployed without Moscow’s authorization would be considered legitimate targets. 

“If it comes to the point where a European presence is needed for a ceasefire or peace agreement to be reached, then Denmark is in principle prepared for that,” Rasmussen said in an interview with DR radio on Monday. 

He also claimed that a final decision would depend on whether the US agrees to support such a contingent. “That is also why we have not announced any contribution today, but have said that Denmark is prepared in principle to participate if the conditions are right,” the foreign minister said.

Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen recently made similar remarks, stating that while Danish troops in Ukraine cannot be ruled out, discussions are still at an early stage.

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Last month, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen also urged the US to take a more active role in Ukraine, calling for American troops to be deployed to the country. Previously, she argued that peace in Ukraine could be “more dangerous” than if the conflict were to continue, citing an alleged threat that Russia could attack an EU country in the future. Moscow has repeatedly dismissed such claims as “nonsense.”

US President Donald Trump has ruled out sending American troops to Ukraine and has refused to commit to backing an EU or British military presence in the country as part of a negotiated settlement of the conflict.

Russian officials have consistently spoken out against any sort of Western troop deployment to Ukraine. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has also suggested that such proposals are aimed at escalating the conflict. He has specifically accused France and the UK, who have been the most vocal proponents of a foreign peacekeeping force in Ukraine, of trying to fuel tensions in the country and trying to stop attempts to end the hostilities.

Poland “would be eager” to reclaim former territory, given the chance, spokesman Dmitry Peskov has claimed

Poland would seize the chance to retake territory from Ukraine it once held, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said. He was responding to reports that western Ukraine’s Lviv Region – formerly part of Poland but now a nationalist hearland – has been lobbying in the US independently of Kiev.  

Earlier this week, Russian media highlighted a recent disclosure from a Washington-based firm acting as a foreign agent for the administration of Lviv Region. TASS characterized Lviv’s lobbying as an effort to pursue policies independent of Kiev, highlighting the border shared with Poland as an advantage. 

When asked about the reports during a regular press briefing on Tuesday, Peskov said the issue was a matter for Ukraine to resolve internally. “I don’t view this as an indication of Ukraine’s dissolution,” Peskov responded. He suggested, however, that Warsaw “would be eager” to reclaim territories that were once Polish if given the chance.

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The US company Color Nine Group notified the Department of Justice in January about its engagement with Ukrainian officials under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). President Michael Willis stated that the firm aims to find “potential US partner states to establish sister-state relationships” with the Lviv Region, offering its services pro bono. Related promotional materials inaccurately label Lviv Region as a state, the TASS report noted. Ukraine is a unitary nation with limited regional self-governance.

Lviv Region’s status as part of Ukraine originates from a 1951 border agreement between the USSR and Soviet Poland, which settled territorial disputes following World War II. Some Polish nationalist politicians argue that the transfer of lands inhabited by ethnic Ukrainians was unjust.

While the Polish government publicly supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity, historical grievances linger over the mass killings of ethnic Poles by Ukrainian militants during World War II, whom modern Ukraine regards as independence fighters and heroes.

Hungary has criticized Kiev for targeting critical energy infrastructure after a recent drone strike on the Druzhba oil pipeline

Hungary has accused Ukraine of threatening its sovereignty after Kiev launched a drone strike on the Druzhba oil pipeline on Tuesday. Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has said shipments of Russian crude via the pipeline have been temporarily halted following the attack on a metering station.

In a video posted on Facebook, Szijjarto stressed that the Druzhba pipeline is a critical component of Hungary’s energy infrastructure, pointing out that if it ceases to function, oil deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia would be “physically impossible.”

“We consider these attacks against our energy infrastructure targeting Hungary to be unacceptable,” the foreign minister said. “Hungary’s energy supply is a matter of sovereignty and we expect everyone to respect this,” he added. 

Szijjarto noted that he had spoken to Russia’s deputy energy minister, who has assured him that crude oil deliveries will likely be resumed within the next 24 hours.

READ MORE: Civilian death toll from Ukrainian mass-drone attack rises

The diplomat recalled that Budapest had repeatedly raised the issue of the safety of its energy infrastructure multiple times in Brussels, and had been given assurances by the European Commission that there would be no attacks on such facilities. “Unfortunately, this is already the umpteenth time when the EC’s guarantee is violated,” Szijjarto pointed out. 

According to media reports, three Ukrainian fixed-wing drones attacked the Druzhba terminal in Bryansk Region on Tuesday night. No injuries were reported. The attack was part of a larger raid on Russia, which reportedly involved more than 340 UAVs, nearly a hundred of which were brought down near Moscow. The falling debris from the destroyed drones near the capital reportedly caused the death of at least three people, while over 20 civilians have been injured.